How HYRE rates memecoins — the verdict engine, unpacked
Every token that hits our /token-verdict endpoint gets a snipe / watch / avoid rating. Here's the signals, the math, and where the model can still be wrong.
HYRE TEAM
Writing from the HYRE ops desk
When a new token hits /token-verdict, HYRE returns one of three labels: SNIPE, WATCH, or AVOID. The label is cheap to consume — one word, a confidence number, a short rationale. What goes into it is not cheap.
This post pulls the curtain back.
Inputs (the signal stack)
Every verdict blends eight raw signals pulled fresh at query time:
- Bonding curve position — how far through pump.fun's curve is the token?
- Unique holder growth rate — new wallets per minute in the last 15 min
- Top-10 concentration — % supply held by top 10 wallets (sybil sniff)
- Dev wallet activity — has the deployer moved, dumped, or held?
- Liquidity depth — USD value locked, and how thin the order book is
- Early buyer quality — were early buys smart-money wallets or bots?
- Narrative fit — is the token riding a current on-chain narrative?
- Social signal — mention velocity on X (via our ct-alpha integration)
Each signal returns a score in [0, 1]. The LLM gets all eight as a structured brief and writes the rationale.
The rating thresholds
We tuned these against six weeks of pump.fun data. They are not sacred — they move when the meta moves.
| Label | Typical pattern |
|---|---|
| SNIPE | Healthy holder growth + low top-10 concentration + positive dev signal + curve under 30% |
| WATCH | Mixed signals, often promising fundamentals but sybil-suspicious distribution |
| AVOID | Top-10 concentration above 60%, dev dumped, or narrative already priced in |
Where we can be wrong
We're honest about the limits:
- Rug pulls after the fact. A dev can hold for 48 hours, then dump. No signal catches that pre-emptively with high confidence.
- Insider attention. If a cabal is coordinating off-chain, on-chain signals look organic until they don't.
- Narrative reversal. A narrative-fit boost today can be a narrative-decay tomorrow. We re-rank continuously but there's always a lag.
That's why the verdict comes with a confidence score and a valid_until timestamp. Don't cache yesterday's SNIPE.
Try it
curl -X POST https://hyre-mpp.cryptoeights.workers.dev/verdict \
-H "X-PAYMENT: <x402-receipt>" \
-d '{"mint":"2HtyE1W7fE2cdoYxR5fsukr9AyoQGpJep14NAVBMpump"}'
$0.002 per call. Verdict in under 3 seconds.